20-21

<p>The first day of spring feels like a return to winter. This morning there is 6-8” of new snow equal to 0.6-0.8” of snow water equivalent (SWE) near Bozeman, Big Sky and West Yellowstone with steady snowfall expected today. The new snow fell onto weak, sugary snow on some slopes and crusts on other slopes. These interfaces make large avalanches of the new snow easy to trigger and may cause slabs to break wide and run long distances. Yesterday Doug saw the weak snow on the surface in the Centennials (outside our advisory area, but similar snowpack) and explains why it is a concern in his video (<strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1b5LjWLTac&amp;list=PLXu5151nmAvQDzKmH…’s video</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/21/6-snow-centennials">photo</a></st…;). Doug was snowmobiling with Mark Staples, director of the Utah Avalanche Center, who appears in Doug’s video and discusses terrain to watch out for, such as steep slopes up high and confined gullies where sliding snow can pile up deep.</p>

<p>Carefully assess the stability of the new snow before riding or crossing steep slopes. Expect stability to decrease through the day with continuous snow, and choose simple, less consequential objectives. Today, continued snowfall on top of weak layers and crusts makes human triggered avalanches likely and natural avalanches possible. The avalanche danger is rated CONSIDERABLE.</p>

<p>In the mountains near Cooke City snowfall totals are less than elsewhere, but they should catch up or surpass other places by tomorrow morning. Doug was riding near Cooke City on Tuesday and found weak layers on the surface, similar to elsewhere, that are now buried by new snow (<strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQd7lPN6zTQ&amp;list=PLXu5151nmAvQDzKmH…;). This morning a couple inches of new snow will create minimal instability, but this afternoon will be different. Heavy snow today could pile up quickly and create slabs that easily slide on the old snow surface. Expect stability to decrease through the day, and carefully evaluate the stability of the new snow before riding steep slopes. Watch for cracks breaking across the snow surface under your sled or skis as one sign the new snow is becoming&nbsp;unstable. Today avalanches of new snow are possible to trigger and the avalanche danger is MODERATE.</p>

<p>If you get out, please send us your observations no matter how brief. You can submit them via our <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_observation"><strong>website<…;, email (<a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com"><strong>mtavalanche@gmail.com</strong></a…;), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>

<p>Today is a day of transition between the warm, dry conditions of the last two weeks and the unsettled weather that is setting in for the next week (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZydqEm8GAMY"><strong><u>video outlining concerns with this transition</u></strong></a><strong>)</strong>.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

<p>Increasing clouds and strong winds will likely keep wet snow and wet avalanches in check today. Avalanches are unlikely while the snow surface is frozen. However, be wary if skies stay clear and sunny into the afternoon or it starts to rain.&nbsp;</p>

<p>A couple extra hours of sunshine would push the snowpack from crusty and refrozen to wet and gloppy with the possibility of wet slides. If the snow surface is wet more than a few inches deep on sunny slopes, move to shadier or lower angled slopes. There will probably only be a sprinkle of rain (if any), before precipitation switches over to snow this afternoon. But if it really starts to rain, the avalanche hazard will rapidly increase, particularly on shady slopes which have remained dry up to now.&nbsp;</p>

<p>With the snow surface expected to remain mostly frozen, avalanches are unlikely and the avalanche danger is LOW today. If it remains sunny into the mid-afternoon or rains, the avalanche danger will rise to MODERATE on slopes with wet snow.</p>

<p>Snow overnight will bring a whole different set of concerns tomorrow, so be sure to check the forecast tomorrow morning if you’re getting out this weekend.</p>

<p>If you get out, please send us your observations no matter how brief. You can submit them via our <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_observation"><strong><u>websi…;, email (<a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com"><strong><u>mtavalanche@gmail.com</u></str…;), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>

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